Predicting “The Winds of Winter” Release Date: an Inexact Science

Recently, author and real-life Gandalf to many George R.R. Martin took time out of his no-doubt furious writing schedule to announce a reading at Balticon in Baltimore, Maryland. This announcement, much like every other twitch of the man’s body, further fanned the flames of not only the sixth season of Game of Thrones, but also the status of the penultimate book in his A Song of Ice and Fire series. The Winds of Winter has supposedly been in the works for _, _. Some rumor mills have been peddling out a May release date in their articles, but no one can corroborate that story. With a cultural aftershock guaranteed with the release of anything Martin-related, it makes sense to keep a tight lid on things.

With such little information, the best we can do is postulate and presume. If that’s the only way to give fans closure on _, it only serves to benefit us all to attempt to give them the most definitive, educated guess possible. This is why I embarked on this journey to create the most mathematically sound informal prediction on when – down to the day – that the next 


 Let’s begin with book one, to be thorough. _ published on August 6th, 1996. _ Obviously, much of that period was not spent working on the manuscript itself, _.

A Game of Thrones – 704 pages

A Clash of Kings – 768 pages

A Storm of Swords – 992 pages

A Feast for Crows – 753 pages

A Dance with Dragons – 1056 pages

As a disclaimer: I am not a mathematician by any definition, as you could’ve probably been able to tell on-sight. _ I haven’t even read the books or follow the series. _ There’s no feasible way Martin would be writing with the most uniform, rigid productivity _.

Featured image courtey of Dan Selcke /